Sunday, 5 October 2014

Bayes of thrones

My friend and colleague Andreas sent me a link to a working paper published by a statistician at the University of Christchurch (New Zealand) and discussed here. The main idea of the paper was to use a Bayesian model to predict the number of future chapters will each of the main characters of Game of Thrones feature in.

I'm not a great fan of Game of Thrones, but I know many people who are (including in my own household). So I can't really comment on the results. However, on a very cursory look at the paper, it seems as though the model is based on vague priors for all the parameters, which is kind of a bummer, as I would have thought this is the kind of model for which you do have some strong subjective (or "expert") prior to use... Still, nice idea, I think...


  1. When will we see a model to predict who dies in "The Winds of Winter" or who will inherit the Iron Throne? :P

  2. Valar morghulis. No need for Bayes :-)

  3. Good topic - but not an R post. Erased from r-bloggers.