The dynamic forecast (which considers for each day from 1 to 22 May only the polls available up to that point) show an interesting progression for Labour, who seem to be picking up some more seats. They are still a long way from the Tories, who are slightly declining. Also, the Lib Dems are also going down and the latest results seem to suggest a poor result for Plaid Cymru in Wales too (the model was forecasting up to 4 seats before, where now they are expected to get 0).
The detailed summary as of today is as follows.
mean sd 2.5% median 97.5%
Conservative 375.109 4.02010949 367.000 376 382
Labour 192.134 3.94862452 186.000 191 200
UKIP 0.000 0.00000000 0.000 0 0
Lib Dem 14.320 2.24781064 10.000 14 18
SNP 50.053 2.12713792 45.975 50 53
Green 0.007 0.08341438 0.000 0 0
PCY 0.377 0.77036645 0.000 0 3
Other 0.000 0.00000000 0.000 0 0
I've also played around with the issue of coalitions $-$ there's still some speculation in the media that the "Progressives" (Labour, Lib Dems and Greens) could try and help each other by not fielding a candidate and support one of the other parties in selected constituencies, so as to maximise the chance of ousting the Conservatives. I've simply used the model prediction and (most likely unrealistically!) assumed 100% compliance from the voters, so that the coalition would get the sum of the votes originally predicted for each of the constituent parties. Here's the result.
The Progressive come much closer and the probability of an outright Tory majority is now much smaller, but still...
Hey Mr. Baio, how do I contact you directly?
ReplyDeleteVincent Mosweta