Friday, 3 June 2016

Large enough probability?

I've deliberately stayed away from the Brexit referendum (that is in terms of spending time doing some modelling to see what the predictions may be) $-$ mostly because I was otherwise busy and didn't really have much time. 

However, I was talking earlier to my "polls guy" Roberto (yes: I have a polls guy) and he's suggested I took a look at Stephen Fisher's blog, who is predicting a 72% chance that the outcome of the referendum will be "remain" (in the EU). I think I'll take that as a good sign.  

In the past couple of days, people have put forward the argument that the UK should take their economy back and "do like New Zealand in the 1980s $-$ that was very good for their economy, so surely it'll work for us too". [start rather annoyed irony]Surely the global economy and trading system were exactly what they are today, back in the 1980s, so surely this is super relevant evidence and something we should be basing our judgement on, today...[end rather annoyed irony]


  1. But New Zealand is still doing okay today, though, and its population is strongly resisting a large international trade treaty (TPPA). Some of the Remain campaign's arguments are getting pretty close to claiming that no country could survive economically outside the EU, which is presumably why NZ has been brought up. Of course, NZ's economy is and always was vastly different from the UK's, so on those grounds it isn't so relevant.

  2. Exactly! But this is the annoying thing $-$ that arguments that are potentially irrelevant are taken at face value and considered as "facts" bearing direct evidence towards such an important decision...