## Thursday, 30 June 2016

### Silver lining

Fivethirtyeight has just published their first prediction for the next US presidential election, stating that Clinton has around 80% chance of winning to Trumps' 20%. This has been also reported in the general media (for example here).

I think the tone of the Guardian's article is kind of interesting $-$ basically if first praises Nate Silver's ability but also points out a series of "high-profile misses that could lead some observers to discount their predictions this year". Author Tom McCarthy goes on to report on very wrong predictions for example on Trump's chance of securing the Republican nomination.

I guess this is such a fluid and dynamic situation that perhaps it's a bit too early to call a definitive outcome. But I'm sure we'll be bombarded with predictions in the next few months...